We do have the stats on that.

As it does usually, curiosity gets the better of me when it comes to hockey statistics. Now that the Columbus Blue Jackets are more than halfway through their season, I wanted to take a look at what the top producers’ numbers might look like on April 13, when all is said and done, and how that compares to past production. To do so, I took each player’s numbers, divided them by his number of games played (stat/gm pace), then multiplied it by 34 – the number of games remaining before tonight’s match-up against Los Angeles. This is obviously a huge plate of assumptions – assuming nobody who is cold gets hot, nobody who is hot struggles, and that [knock on wood] nobody takes a hit from the injury bug. I’ll undoubtedly be wrong, but it’ll be fun to see how they finish the year versus mid-season form. If you would like to look at the whole team, check out my spreadsheet on Google Docs.

Ryan Johansen

Player GP G A P PP SH S
Ryan Johansen 48 18 18 36 4 0 131
Projected 82 31 31 62 7 0 224

Nobody has to tell you this guy is way off his prior pace, but he’s 21 and he’s going in the right direction, so we’re obviously down with this. I’ve already talked about that. If Johansen does indeed finish with 31 goals or better, he will be only the third player in franchise history to do so. Geoff Sanderson and Rick Nash are the others. (But you already knew that.) 62 points would also be the most by one player since 2011.

Brandon Dubinsky

Player GP G A P PP SH S
Brandon Dubinsky 42 10 22 32 3 2 108
 Projected 76 18 40 58 5 4 195

When Dubinsky, Anisimov, et al came over from New York, I had said that if we got two twenty-goal scorers in exchange for one streaky 30-40 goal scorer, I would take it. Let’s pretend last year never happened. Dubinsky is on pace for eighteen goals. His career high is 24, but let’s look at the point total – his career high is 54, but averaged in the forties. He’s having a career year, and I’d guarantee much of that has to do with the electrifying chemistry he creates with Cam Atkinson and Matt Calvert. We’ll take it.

James Wisniewski

Player GP G A P PP SH S
James Wisniewski 41 4 24 28 1 0 90
 Projected 75 7 44 51 2 0 165

When Wisniewski came over to the Blue Jackets in the summer of 2011, I wasn’t sure what to think at first. They paid him an extraordinary amount of money, but the kind you need to bring in talent when you’ve got little by way of bragging rights. I did some nerdy stat breakdowns at the time and declared it a deal. He hasn’t come anywhere close to his career high of 51 points in 2011 that earned him the deal, but — oh, look at that — he’s on pace for exactly that amount. He’s topped his first full-season point total with Columbus, and appears to be continuing upward. We can only hope for good health. Right now, he’s figuring fifteenth among defensemen in points. Good news for #21.

Cam Atkinson

Player GP G A P PP SH S
Cam Atkinson 48 15 12 27 2 1 135
Projected 82 26 21 46 3 2 231

Cam Atkinson has yet to play a full season in the NHL – this will be his first – so its hard to compare his numbers versus the past. However, in both of his first two (partial) seasons, he averaged around 0.51 PPG. This season he’s upped that to 0.56 PPG. That isn’t a huge difference, but it shows Atkinson can be counted on to be consistent. Likely, these numbers are helped by a pretty hot last five games, but even streaky players even out over time.

Nick Foligno

Player GP G A P PP SH S
Nick Foligno 42 12 14 26 2 0 70
 Projected 76 22 25 47 4 0 127

Foligno has played 438 NHL games, but has never surpassed twenty goals in a season, despite also putting up 47 points in 2011-12, just before moving over to Columbus. Steady, Foligno has been, in his parts of seven seasons, and he’s every bit on pace to continue that.

RJ Umberger

Player GP G A P PP SH S
RJ Umberger 48 11 13 24 5 0 84
Projected 82 19 22 41 9 0 144

Before I say anything, let me remind you that Umberger is third on the Columbus Blue Jackets in cap hit, behind Marian Gaborik and Nathan Horton. He makes more than every single player ahead of him on this list. Up until 2011, Umberger was putting upwards of 50 ponts on the board every year, with one year just below that. Since then, Umberger has been on a steady decline: 40 in 77 games in 2011-12 (0.52), 18 in 48 games in 2012-13 (0.375). This year he’s returned to 0.50, but he’s still well below the 0.67 clip that earned him his deal. Prognosis: not good enough. (Side Note: five minutes after I wrote this, he scored a goal.)

Artem Anisimov

Player GP G A P PP SH S
Artem Anisimov 48 12 10 22 1 1 88
Projected 82 21 17 38 2 2 150

For most of the beginning of this season, it felt a bit like Anisimov was skating lost and accomplishing nothing. Anisimov plays a two-way game, counted on for his defensive game, but he’s got hands like buttah and we know know he can snipe when he wants to. Even in his best year with the Rangers, Anisimov only put up 18 goals. He’s on pace for just over twenty, and his second-highest point total. It’s believable that Anisimov is hiding more in his arsenal, but the positive takeaway is that he’s not actually getting worse.

 

 

studsMark Letestu: How important is this guy to the team? Not only does he play everywhere Todd Richards puts him, he plays hard and he produces. With a goal in regulation to get the Jackets on the board and one in the shootout, Mark Letestu is our #1 stud tonight.

Cam Atkinson: That shootout game-winner was a beaut. But prior to that, he was a pivotal part of a line with Gaborik & Dubinsky that threw a lot of shots toward the net (6 SOG, 7 A/B, 2 MS).

 

dudsThe first and second periods: blech. The defensive zone play was abysmal. Scrambling, sloppy, lazy, distracted. It wasn’t until Letestu’s goal that there was any life breathed into them.

Ryan Murray: I’m not writing him off. I know it’s early. But he’s nothing like the Ryan Murray we saw in preseason. He’s got to get better, or I’d be content sending him off to Springfield for a little seasoning once Tyutin is back to speed.

 

 

 

Statistical odds and ends, courtesy of the NHL.com Event Summary for the 10/7/11 game:

  • Marc Methot had only 15:33 TOI, the least of the entire D corps, though he was far from the worst. His last shift was with four minutes left in the third. Likely because they were looking for an offensive push on the blue line in the waning minutes, but never the less bizarre. He drew a minute and a half less PK time than Martinek & Tyutin, also.
  • Sometimes the numbers do lie (despite Mike Commodore’s insistence that his -8 last season was the statisticians’ fault): Cam Atkinson was a -2 on the night, the worst on the team (his linemates were -1 each), but otherwise, Atkinson did not have a bad night. He wasn’t a force to be reckoned with, but he had a few great  opportunities dissolved by Pekka Rinne.
  • Let’s talk about Jeff Carter on the face off dot. 24-7? That is more than half of the team’s combined 42 wins on the draw. He looked a little lost at times (we’re not in Philadelphia anymore, Toto), but a 0-2-2, 6 SOG, +1, 77% face off percentage earned last night’s paycheck for Goldilocks.
  • Hit me with your best shot: Without a whole lot of bumping & bruising, the Jackets still took the line on hits, 23-10. Dorsett had 4; Russell, MacKenzie, and Pahlsson each had 3. No word on if Russell’s check on Rick Nash counted toward that number.
  • Give it away, now: Clitsome (3), Atkinson (2), & Russell (2), cost the team, contributing to the ugly 11 team turnovers.
  • TOI leader: Clitsome, 24:29
  • TOI loser: Calvert, 8:55

    Kris Russell will miss the IIHF World Championships

  1. From Puck Rakers – Russell Out of Worlds: Update on defenseman Kris Russell, who according to Scott Howson has a spiral fracture of his tibia. He’s been ruled out of the World Championships, but who isn’t? Rick Nash (Canada), Fedor Tyutin (Russia), and Jakub Voracek (Czech Republic).
  2. From Carry the Flag – Methot Set to Wear Half Shield: With Marc Methot‘s decision to switch to a visor for 2011-12, Dan – a hockey player himself – gives us his $0.02 on the matter.
  3. From The Cannon – Game 80: Insult and Injury: As always, Matt conjures up a pretty in depth look at the last game, with a pretty interesting point – “Does anyone else feel a moment of bemusement that there was a disputed goal in yet another game against Dallas, and Derek Dorsett was involved each time?”
  4. From the Dark Blue Jacket – DBJ’s crowdsourced ballot for the 2011 NHL Awards: In lieu of our beloved (protesting) NHL writers doing it, DBJ is running a fan vote for the NHL Awards. Check it out and weigh in on his Facebook page.
  5. From Fire the Cannon – Eric Smith’s Weekly Podcast: This week featuring Tom Reed of the Columbus Dispatch and rookie Cam Atkinson.
  • RJ Umberger‘s consecutive game streak is sitting at 240 games. Jason Chimera holds the Blue Jackets’ record at 240 consecutive games (source). Provided nothing happens (knock wood), he will tie Chimera’s record on Sunday against St. Louis, and set the mark in Dallas n Tuesday. (h/t to Lee at the Jacketsblog for the reminder).
  • The Jackets signed goaltender Allen York out of RPI on Tuesday and should join the Falcons to play out the last week and a half of the season. According to the Albany Times-Union, York is RPI’s all-time GAA leader at 2.47. His three-year NCAA career record is 37-33-8.
  • The NCAA announced their “hat trick” of finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award, and on that list is Cam Atkinson, freshly-signed CBJ prospect & Springfield Falcon. He’s up against Miami’s Andy Miele and North Dakota’s Matt Frattin. The award is announced on April 8th, the day between the Frozen Four semi-finals and finals.
  • The Hard Times of RJ Umberger? Random find, here, but worth a laugh. If you’re the kind of person who can laugh at yourself, that is. And, well, you’re a Blue Jackets fan, so you’re probably used to that by now.

The Springfield Falcons finished the last week 1-2, dropping decisions to Connecticut and Binghamton and picking up a victory over Worcester that ended a twelve-game losing streak. The Falcons currently sit with a record of 31-38-2-3 and 67 points which puts them at sixth in the Atlantic Division and outside the AHL playoff picture.

Additions:
Paul Dainton, Goaltender: Signed to ATO on 3/21. 69-61-12, 2.78, .908 in four seasons at UMass-Amherst.
Wade McLeod, Forward: Signed to ATO on 3/21. 61-76-137 in four seasons at Northeastern University.
Cam Atkinson, Forward: Signed to ELC with Columbus on 3/27. 68-56-124 in three seasons with Boston College. Hobey Baker Finalist (To be awarded on 4/8). Follow him on Twitter at @CamAtkinson13, or check out a few videos on the future Blue Jacket:

Weekly Game Recap:

Wednesday, March 23
Springfield
2
at Connecticut 3

Scoring:
1 – SPR – MacLeod 1 (Savard, Holden), 18:02.
2 – SPR – Goloubef 5 (Kubalik, Smith), 8:59
2 – CT – Couture 2 (Garlock), 11:52.
3 – CT – Weise 16 (Newbury, Dupont), 0:54 (PP)
3 – CT – Mitchell 6 (Williams, Grachev), 11:17

Goaltending:
SPR –  Dainton L (31/34)
CT –  Grumet-Morris W (25/27)

Saturday, March 26
Springfield 7
at Worcester 2

Scoring:
1 – SPR – Moore, (8) (Guite), 9:34 (SH)
1 – SPR – Filatov, (7) (Savard), 12:25 (PP) 
2 – SPR – Kubalik, (22) (Guite, Holden), 4:10
2 – SPR – Moore, (5) (Kubalik, Dainton), 10:02
3 – SPR – Bogosian, (1) (Savard), 1:27
3 – SPR – Sigalet, (4) (Kubalik, Guite), 2:57
3 – WOR – Trevelyan, (15) (DaSilva, Moore), 5:32 (PP)
3 – WOR – Wingels, (17) (McCarthy, Ferriero), 12:10 (PP)
3 – SPR – Tarnasky, (6) (Kubalik, Holden), 18:24 (PP)

Goaltending:
SPR – Dainton W (39/41)
WOR - Hutton/Sateri L (23/30)

Sunday, March 27
Binghamton 4
at Springfield 1

Scoring:
1 – BNG – Gryba 3 (Daugavins, Keller), 9:18
2 – BNG – Bass 5 (Grant), 1:46
3 – SPR – Savard 8 (Holden, Frischmon), 0:37
3 – BNG – Wick 18 (Locke), 3:07
3 – BNG – Benoit 10 (Wick, Locke), 18:55 (EN)

Goaltending:
BNG – Brodeur W (38/39)
SPR – Dainton L (26/29)